Does God guide us, or are we left to our own wisdom? And how do we recognize God's leading? Now God is in control of all things (Ephesians 1:11) and causes all things to work together for good to those who are called by Him (Romans 8:28). He has prepared certain good works beforehand that we should walk in them (Ephesians 2:10), and the Spirit's leading is based on our being sons of God (Romans 8:14). I would therefore conclude that God guides every genuine child of God. This is a fact and is not dependent on my feelings or on my figuring it out. Nor does the fact God leads us mean it will always be easy, but it does mean He will go through troubles with us (John 16:33)
Now sometimes God allows us to feel that He is leading us, but knowing His leading is not just based on our feelings. On the contrary, while I believe God can use our careful weighing of the facts or circumstances or feelings to lead us where He wants us to go, I do not believe we should trust in any of these. Nor do I believe we should direct our lives based purely on what makes sense to us from a human point of view. Rather, we should trust in God that He will direct us to where we should be. And in any situation we must prayerfully ask whether something is indeed God guiding us or our imagination. But we need to do so with the confidence that God is in control of our life and will direct us where we need to be. I remember walking into a church for the first Sunday and hearing the pastor say that he was not going to be in charge of the Sunday School and maybe someone who just walked in the door was the person for the job. I felt like God tapped me on the shoulder and told me I was the one. As it turned out, I was. But I still approached the situation with caution and let God bring everything together, rather than jumping in too quickly based on my feeling. But it did direct me.
Now I want to make it clear that the main thing is obedience to God's revealed will (1 Thessalonians 4:3). Though even when we do disobey He can arrange things, like He did for Jonah, to bring us back to the right path (see the book of Jonah). But my concern is for those who honestly want to obey God but are afraid if they do not have the right feeling or use the right method they will miss God's direction in their lives. Or they may come to trust in their feelings or the method rather than God. For I am convinced the reason God does not give us a formula to determine His leading is we must not come to trust the formula rather than Him.